The Contenders is a semi-regular midweek column that looks at artists aiming for the top of the Billboard charts, and the strategies behind their efforts. This week, for the upcoming Billboard Hot 100 dated Feb. 14, we look at the chances of Olivia Rodrigo’s swoony new single to snag the chart’s top spot from Ella Langley’s indefatigable heartbreak smash.
Olivia Rodrigo, “Drop Dead” (Geffen/Interscope Capitol): Over her still-short career in pop stardom, Olivia Rodrigo has acquired a taste for debuting at No. 1 on the Billboard Hot 100 with her new albums’ lead singles. Breakout hit “Drivers License,” which led her debut album Sour, went immediately viral enough to bow atop the Hot 100 in January 2021. Two years later, “Vampire” entered at No. 1 as the advance single from sophomore effort Guts, making her the first artist ever to debut the lead singles from two career-opening albums at No. 1 on the Hot 100.
Now, Rodrigo looks to go three-for-three with the first taste of her third LP You Seem Pretty Sad for a Girl So in Love, “Drop Dead.” The new song, which features both a more upbeat sound and a much more upbeat outlook on love and romance than her two prior lead singles, hit streamers and retailers last Friday (April 17). The song has mostly drawn strong reviews, and got off to a dynamite start on DSPs, topping Spotify’s Daily Top Songs USA chart — with just over 4 million plays, a slightly stronger opening than “Vampire” — and thusfar remaining there through the week, while reaching as high as No. 2 on Apple Music’s realtime chart.
Whether it can topple Ella Langley’s seven-week Hot 100 No.1 “Choosin’ Texas,” however, may largely come down to sales. Langley will, of course, have the radio advantage, given her single’s months-long head start — though “Drop Dead” begins strong there as well, with 17.6 million in initial five-day all-format audience, according to Luminate — but Rodrigo may make up the difference in sales, with a wide variety of editions of the new single available both for digital and physical purchase.
Online, Rodrigo has released multiple music videos, multiple cover variants, and multiple different edits of the song, including “the most alive I’ve ever been – sped up” and “you know all the words – isolated vocals” editions, which should help her accumulate one of the year’s most robust single-week digital sales totals. Through her website, she has also sold the single on CD, cassette and vinyl, with the vinyl release of the song already selling out — though it is unclear what percentage of those copies shipped during this current tracking week (April 17-23), with later-shipped copies counting towards future chart weeks.
With the single really getting the full streaming and sales push from Rodrigo and her label — reminiscent of recent campaigns for megastars like Taylor Swift and BTS — it seems a good bet that “Drop Dead” will end up being undeniable at the top spot next week. But it’ll have to play all 48 minutes, as the competition this week remains very strong.
Ella Langley, “Choosin’ Texas” & “Be Her” (SAWGOD/Columbia/Triple Tigers): “Choosin’ Texas” has established itself as the song to beat on the Hot 100 this spring, fortifying its stronghold at the chart’s apex in recent weeks with the debut of both the song’s star-studded music video (including Yellowstone star Luke Grimes and “Texas” co-writer Miranda Lambert) and the release of its parent album, Dandelion. The song remains atop Streaming Songs this week (dated April 25), and remains in the top 10 on Digital Song Sales (No. 2) and Radio Songs (No. 9), with no obvious drop-off for the song coming in the near future. (No major bumps are expected to be imminent for it either, though she will get a big look this weekend at the Stagecoach Music Festival.)
However, she has to compete with herself on the charts a little bit, as Dandelion not only debuts atop the Billboard 200 this week, it launches 15 total tracks onto the Hot 100 — including Langley’s second top five hit, “Be Her” (8-4). That song has nestled behind “Texas” on Streaming Songs the past two weeks, and is also growing on radio, up 29-26 on Radio Songs this week, and reaching the top 10 on Country Airplay (12-10) for the first time.
Still, before “Be Her” really gets a chance to challenge “Choosin’ Texas” for the Hot 100’s top spot, both songs might get lapped by a yet-unreleased song: “I Can’t Love You Anymore,” a new duet with country superstar Morgan Wallen that the duo debuted onstage over the weekend (April 18) at their show in Tuscaloosa, Ala. Given that Wallen and Langley have easily been the two most Hot 100-dominant country artists of the past year, “Anymore” is expected to have a resounding chart debut, with Langley potentially challenging for three of the Hot 100’s top five spots on the week after next’s chart — and will almost certainly be back in strong No. 1 contention, possibly with multiple songs.
Taylor Swift, “Elizabeth Taylor” (Republic): Don’t count out the most dominant Hot 100 force of recent years making her presence felt in next week’s chart race. Though “Elizabeth Taylor” has not really approached the top of the Hot 100 since debuting at No. 3 in the first chart week for its The Life of a Showgirl parent album, it has rebounded in the past few weeks — thanks 🇦🇷 its new, Elizabeth Taylor footage-compiled music video and a concentrated radio push — and now sits at No. 51 on the chart.
It should make a big jump next week, thanks to its release on 7-inch vinyl as a Record Store Day exclusive, with the single expected to be a big seller. Just how big remains to be seen — but given Swift’s long-proven selling power, a possible return to at least the top 10 certainly can’t be counted out.
