Spotify stock fell as much as 12.9% to $256.84 on Wednesday (April 28) after the streaming service decreased its forecasted listener count for the end of 2021. Share prices ended the day down 12.3% at $256.84.

The considerable drop followed Spotify’s first quarter 2021 earnings report, a mix of encouraging trends and subtle misses. The company’s guidance for end-of-year listeners, referred to as monthly average listeners, decreased by a mere 5 million — from a range of 407 million to 427 million down to 402 million to 427 million.

That adjustment followed Spotify’s reported first-quarter monthly active users (MAU) of 356 million, falling on the bottom end of earlier guidance.

There was good news too, though. First-quarter subscriptions were at the high end of guidance, and Spotify did not revise its 2021 guidance for subscribers (172 million to 184 million), suggesting it expects the dip to come from “freemium” listeners. Average revenue per month on those free listeners is 0.35 euros ($0.42), compared to subscribers’ 4.07 euros ($4.94) per month. (Subscribers account for about 90% of the company’s total revenue.)

That MAU adjustment could have a larger financial impact in the future, as Spotify uses its freemium business model to acquire new subscribers. So, fewer free listeners this year means there will be fewer potential subscribers in the future.

Chopping $7.2 billion from Spotify’s market capitalization is an overreaction, according to Brian White at Monness Crespi Hardt. White wrote in a note to investors on Wednesday that he believes Spotify’s fundamentals remain strong and Wednesday’s sell-off is a good buying opportunity. “We have found the market often takes issue with a particular data point during a Spotify earnings call and the stock subsequently plummets,” he said.

How big was investors’ reaction? Compared to the plummet in market capitalization, the financial impact is a drop in the ocean. In simple terms, the revenue loss from a 5 million decrease in free listeners is worth just €20.8 million for all of 2021, or 0.2% of annual revenue, according to Billboard’s estimate.

Of course, many factors could be behind the price drop. MAU growth in Latin America and Southeast Asia has slowed after they were “strong outperformers,” CEO Daniel Ek said in Wednesday’s earnings call. Average revenue per user (ARPU) fell 1% to 4.12 euros ($5.00) per month and has consistently fallen because more subscribers buy family plans, which allow up to six people on one account, and expansion into new markets with lower prices.

ARPU is a messy metric for gauging a subscription service’s performance — Spotify would point out that family plans have lower churn rates, which directly impact a subscriber’s value. Nevertheless, ARPU is a highly visible and closely followed metric.

JP Morgan’s Doug Anmuth is still upbeat about Spotify, especially about opportunities to engage listeners with new services such as Locker Room. Even so, Anmuth dropped his price target from $385 to $330 because of “mixed results” in a note to investors on Wednesday. White, calling MAU concerns “nothing more than noise,” maintained his price target at $380.

Investors have been excited by news of podcast acquisitions and deals for exclusive and original content with the hopes spoken-word audio would improve their margins that stem mostly from music companies’ royalties demands. Spotify’s exclusive licensing with The Joe Rogan Experience, its top podcast in numerous markets, started in December. It rolls out one original podcast series after another, most notably Renegades: Born in the USA with Bruce Springsteen and Barrack Obama, which premiered Feb. 19.

Spotify’s share price began 2021 at $317.42 and rose to $387.44 on Feb. 19 before falling as low as $249.00 on March 30 — a 35.7% tumble in just 39 days.

The Offspring return to Billboard’s album charts with the band’s first studio effort in nearly a decade, as Let the Bad Times Roll debuts at No. 1 on the Alternative Albums chart (dated May 1). The set was released via Wabi Sabi/Concord on April 16 and earned 19,000 equivalent album units in the U.S. in the week ending April 22, according to MRC Data.

The Alternative Albums chart ranks the most popular alternative albums of the week in the U.S. based on multi-metric consumption as measured in equivalent album units. Units comprise album sales, track equivalent albums (TEA) and streaming equivalent albums (SEA). Each unit equals one album sale, or 10 individual tracks sold from an album, or 3,750 ad-supported or 1,250 paid/subscription on-demand official audio and video streams generated by songs from an album. For all chart news, follow @billboard and @billboardcharts on both Twitter and Instagram.

Of Let the Bad Time Roll’s 19,000 equivalent album units earned in the tracking week ending April 22, album sales comprise 17,000, SEA units comprise 2,000 (equaling 2.42 million on-demand streams of the album’s tracks) and TEA units comprise less than 1,000.

Let the Bad Times Roll is The Offspring’s 10th studio release and first since 2012’s Days Go By.

Let the Bad Times Roll is The Offspring’s first No. 1 on the 13-year-old Alternative Albums chart. The set also launches in the top 10 across multiple other Billboard tallies, including Top Album Sales, Top Rock Albums, Independent Albums, Vinyl Albums and Tastemaker Albums. On the Billboard 200 chart, the set starts at No. 27, marking the act’s ninth top 40-charting album – the entirely of their charting releases.

The new album includes the 2015 single “Coming For You,” which hit No. 1 on Mainstream Rock Airplay and No. 16 on Alternative Airplay. The album’s latest hit is its title track, which is climbing both Mainstream Rock Airplay (6-4 on the chart dated May 1) and Alternative Airplay (24-20).

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