Live Nation shares gained 4.0% to hit $103.77 this week, marking the stock’s best closing price since May 2, 2022, and the first time the concert promotion giant had five straight closes above $100 since late April and early May that same year.

Other music stocks didn’t fare as well. Most of the 20 companies in the Billboard Global Music Index dropped this week, with 13 stocks losing ground and just seven finishing the week in positive territory. The index fell 0.1% to 1,697.90, marking the first time it’s decreased in successive weeks since it fell during three consecutive weeks in October 2023. Multi-week declines are rare for the index: Since the beginning of 2023, it has had just two two-week declines, two three-week declines and one four-week decline (in July and August 2023). This week’s slight drop brought the index’s year-to-date gain to 10.8%.

In a relatively quiet week free of earnings releases or market-moving news, there was roughly an even mix of gains and losses from the most valuable companies. Universal Music Group increased 2.1% to 27.32 euros ($29.77) while Spotify dropped 1.7% to $254.89 and Warner Music Group (WMG) fell 2.9% to $32.94. Elsewhere, German promoter CTS Eventim rose 2.1% to 76.70 euros ($83.56) and reached a new 52-week high of 77.80 euros ($84.76).

K-pop companies rebounded after a string of weekly declines. HYBE improved 2.3% to 199,000 won ($149.59) and SM Entertainment climbed 2.5% to 74,900 won ($56.30). YG Entertainment jumped 6.3% to 43,050 won ($32.36) but is still down 19.6% year to date.

French indie music company Believe finished at 15.52 euros ($16.91), still well above the 15.00 euros ($16.34) tender offer by a consortium that seeks to take the company private. WMG has expressed interest in Believe at 17.00 euros ($18.52) per share.

The companies with the largest gains and losses are among the least valuable on the index. The week’s greatest gainer was Abu Dhabi-based music streamer Anghami, which rose 15.6% to $1.11 and has a market capitalization of just $30.7 million — less than 0.1% of Spotify’s. Radio broadcast giant iHeartMedia and French music streamer Deezer had the index’s biggest losses of 10.0% and 10.3%, but iHeartMedia’s market cap is only $255 million while Deezer’s is about 245 million euros ($267 million).

The index’s four live music stocks had an average gain of 0.9% this week, topping the 0.4% gain of the seven record label and publishing stocks. Five streaming stocks averaged a less than 0.1% decline. Three radio companies — iHeartMedia, Cumulus Media and SiriusXM — had an average decline of 5.1%.

Key U.S. indexes also saw small declines this week. The Nasdaq composite fell 0.7% to 15,973.17. The S&P 500 fell 0.1% to 5,117.09. In the United Kingdom, the FTSE 100 gained 0.9% to 7,727.42. South Korea’s KOSPI composite index declined 0.5% to 2,666.84. China’s Shanghai Composite Index grew 0.3% to 3,054.64.

In their much-cited 2023 paper “Glocalisation of Music Streaming within and across Europe,” Will Page and Chris Dalla Riva note that the rise of global streaming platforms correlates with the strengthening of local music.

This seemingly contradictory state is what the authors refer to as “glocalisation” — or “glocalization” in the American spelling. And in Latin music, that phenomenon has led to a spike in local genres like corridos, banda, funk and Argentine rap in recent years.

According to Pedro Kurtz — Deezer’s head of music for LATAM, speaking on a SXSW panel titled “Latin Music Momentum In The Age of ‘Glocalization’” on Tuesday (Mar. 12) — it’s about relatability.

“We listen to music that we relate to, that represents us culturally. You look at artists and they’re speaking my language, and everything moves from there.”

Kurtz appeared on the panel alongside Cris Garcia Falcão, MD of label and artist strategy/GM of Latin at Virgin Music, and Sandra Jimenez, head of music in Latin America at YouTube — and the conversation (which I moderated) often turned lively between the three Brazilian executives.

Their points of view not only highlighted the glocalization phenomenon and how democratization and streaming dramatically changed Latin music, but also the similarities and differences between the Brazilian and Latin American markets, which many tend to lump together — even though they’re vastly different.

Although Brazil is an enormous and powerful market, the music is in Portuguese, and there is still a language barrier that must be broken down in order to break through internationally; even Brazilian megastar Anitta had to sing in Spanish to get noticed.

But, notes Jimenez, “There is no language barrier for Spanish. It’s almost like one big country. It’s a region with more than 300 million people. It’s a huge region.”

Its sheer size has given the region clout.

On YouTube, Latin America is “one of the top three regions in the world in terms of music consumption,” said Jimenez. For Deezer, added Kurtz, “It’s the second most important region in terms of streaming and engagement.”

And the vast majority of the content consumed on streaming platforms in Latin America is local.

For example, Falcão said that before the pandemic, “It was more about Anglo content. Now, it’s more democratic. Everyone should understand our region and our culture and adapt.”

Those who do, win. In Brazil, more than 80% of music consumption is local. In Mexico, says Kurtz, “72% of our streaming comes from local artists. It’s a big number, and local branches are getting more autonomy. Back in the day, we had other forces pushing music.”

Beyond the numbers, there are other intangibles. The Latin diaspora globally has led to music in Spanish, in particular, being consumed all around the world — and that phenomenon was accentuated during the pandemic. “It made us more internal,” said Jimenez. “It wasn’t possible to meet with friends and family, so we created community.”

As Latin music consumption has increased, so has music creation and investment in the region. Kurtz says that starting in 2020, Deezer has seen its number of weekly pitches in the region almost double — reflecting an increased interest in making music.

“It’s about people valuing their own cultures, and the charts are basically a mirror of that,” he said.

The global record business will soon pop the champagne to celebrate another year of streaming-led revenue growth, judging from the handful of individual country revenue figures for 2023 made public so far this year. The IFPI won’t release its 2023 report until Thursday (Mar. 21), but major markets such as the United Kingdom, France, Germany, Spain and Japan have already released data that shows 2023 produced another bumper harvest for record labels.  

But while streaming continues to push markets in positive directions, growth has slowed, and revenue in some markets remains well below the levels of the CD era. Worse yet, some countries may have insufficient streaming growth to get back to earlier peaks.   

SNEP, the recorded music trade group in France, issued a stark warning this week when it announced that the country’s 2023 revenue rose a respectable 5.1% to 968 million euros ($1.05 billion at the average exchange rate in 2023). But even though digital revenue rose 8.8% to 620 million euros ($671 million) and streaming revenue climbed 9.2%, a 10% increase in subscription streaming revenue “remains too weak to fully fuel the development of the market even though it is the primary source of value creation,” SNEP wrote in its 2023 report.  

France might reasonably be expected to be faring better in 2024. The country was the sixth-largest recorded music market in 2022, according to the IFPI, and is the home of Deezer, an early entrant to the music subscription market. But in 2023, France had only a 16% penetration rate for paid subscribers, according to SNEP, “one of the lowest among the main music territories. The growth in revenue from these subscriptions is slowing down here while our market is far from having reached maturity.” This isn't a brand-new concern: SNEP sounded the same alarm a year ago. 

So, while streaming is creating new opportunities globally for labels, publishers and creators, it hasn’t grown enough to help France recapture revenue lost during the fall of the CD in the 2000s. France’s revenue of 968 million euros in 2023 was 25% below the 1.3 billion euros of revenue it enjoyed in 2002. In contrast, the U.S. market’s $15.9 billion in recorded music revenue was well above the peak of the CD era, $14.5 billion, set in 1999, according to the RIAA.

Elsewhere, some major recorded music markets have announced decent gains in 2023 without voicing the kind of dire warning seen in France.  

The German recorded music industry grew 6.3% in 2023, the BVMI announced Mar. 6. Digital revenue grew 8.4% and accounted for 81.5% of total revenue. Audio streaming rose 8.4% and accounted for 74.8% of the total market and 92% of digital revenue. Physical sales accounted for 18.5% of total revenue and rose 0.1% from 2022. CD sales dropped 5.9% but accounted for 11.3% of total revenue and about 61% of physical revenue. Vinyl sales grew 12.6%.  

Spain’s recorded music market grew 12.3% to 520 million euros in 2023, Promusicae announced Tuesday (Mar. 12). Streaming grew 17.3% to 398.6 million euros ($432 million) and accounted for 77% of total revenue, which was a remarkable 150% higher than the low point of 159.7 million euros ($212 million) in 2013. But, like France, Spain has yet to match its peak revenue from the CD era. Last year’s revenue was on par with the 475 million euros ($534 million) seen in 2005, itself a sharp decline from revenue that surpassed 700 million euros ($630 million) in 2001.

Aside from SNEP in France, only the BPI in the United Kingdom sounded an alarm of any sort. The market’s recorded revenue rose 8.1% in 2023 to a record 1.43 billion pounds ($1.78 billion), the organization announced Thursday (Mar. 14), with streaming revenue increasing 8.4% to 962 million pounds ($1.2 billion) and accounting for 67.4% of total revenue, up from 67.3% in 2022 and well above the 8.6% seen a decade earlier. But BPI CEO Dr. Jo Twist cautioned not to take the growth for granted and emphasized the need for “significant label investment” to keep the market prosperous.  

There’s a reason the kind of gains music markets are seeing currently might not feel like unqualified success stories: inflation. Adjusted for inflation, revenue in France last year was actually 48% below 2002; and in 2022, the United States was 38% below its 1999 peak. 

These major markets’ failure to return to CD-era highs helps explain the music business’s unprecedented land rush as companies invest in developing markets in search of export-ready artists and untapped streaming potential. Both majors and independents are investing in Africa, the Middle East/North Africa, Asia and South America — regions with large populations, under-monetized streaming markets and exportable music that could generate royalties in Western countries.  

Those developing markets, and some major ones like the United States and United Kingdom, helped global recorded music trade revenue reach a new high of $24 billion in 2021, surpassing the $23.2 billion from 1999 (unadjusted for inflation). While both the United States and United Kingdom surpassed their CD era peaks in 2021 (without adjusting for inflation), some other major markets are still trying to recapture their glory days. Growth-minded companies in those markets may have to look beyond their borders to get there.